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Call for Papers

“Geopolitical Risk, Catastrophic Events, and Financial Stability”

Over the past decade, geopolitical risk (GPR) has emerged as a central determinant of macro-financial dynamics, reshaping how economists and finance scholars conceptualize systemic risk. A growing body of empirical literature demonstrates that GPR captures not only political tensions and military conflicts, but also the likelihood of rare, high-impact events consistent with the notion of catastrophic risk and "rare disasters" (Caldara and Iacoviello, 2022; Foglia et al., 2025; Salisu et al., 2021). In this sense, GPR increasingly functions as a high-frequency proxy for tail risk in modern asset pricing and macro-finance frameworks.

Crucially, geopolitical risk can no longer be treated as an exogenous disturbance to financial systems. Recent evidence suggests it has become a persistent and endogenous component of systemic risk, embedded in financial markets, institutions, and macroeconomic processes (Pulawska et al, 2026). At the same time, advances in machine learning and data-driven methods are opening new avenues for modeling complex risk structures and forecasting extreme events (Rao et al., 2025).

This Special Issue brings together theoretical and empirical research at the intersection of geopolitical risk, catastrophic events, and financial stability. The six thematic areas outlined below reflect the scope of these challenges and the range of questions they raise for researchers and policymakers.

Research Themes

  • 1. GPR as a Driver of Systemic Risk: Geopolitical risk amplifies systemic risk in banking sectors, particularly in emerging economies. The relationship is endogenous; macroeconomic conditions in major economies also shape the intensity of global GPR.
  • 2. Financial Fragmentation and the Global Financial Cycle: Geopolitical tensions reduce diversification opportunities and increase capital flow volatility, raising the probability of sudden stops in emerging and developing economies.
  • 3. Firms under Geopolitical Risk: Geopolitical uncertainty reduces firm profitability and prompts precautionary cash accumulation. Corporate governance, ESG practices, and business group affiliation help mitigate adverse effects.
  • 4. Financial Markets: Spillovers and Asset Pricing GPR raises sovereign CDS spreads and generates contagion effects across equity, foreign exchange, and commodity markets, most pronounced in post-Soviet economies.
  • 5. Global Catastrophic Risks: Pandemics, natural disasters, climate change, and cyberthreats destabilize financial systems in ways that extend beyond conventional risk frameworks.
  • 6. Governance and Systemic Resilience: Institutional capacity to learn from crises remains limited. Effective responses require institutional reform, improved crisis communication, and cross-sector coordination.

Scope of the Special Issue

This Special Issue invites high-quality theoretical and empirical contributions that deepen our understanding of how geopolitical and catastrophic risks emerge, propagate, and affect financial systems, as well as their implications for policy and systemic resilience.

Topics of interest include, but are not limited to: Asset pricing under geopolitical and catastrophic risk; Systemic risk and financial stability; Corporate responses to geopolitical uncertainty; Financial fragmentation and global capital flows; Energy and commodity markets under geopolitical stress; Climate-related financial risks and sustainability; Cyber risk and financial system resilience; Policy responses to global catastrophic threats.

References

  • Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring Geopolitical Risk. American Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191823
  • Foglia, M., Plakandaras, V., Gupta, R., Bouri, E. (2025). Rare disasters and multilayer spillovers between volatility and skewness in international stock markets over a century of data: The role of geopolitical risk. International Review of Economics and Finance. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2025.104183
  • Pulawska, K., Sikora, A., Snarska, M., & Strzelczyk, W. (2026). Macro risks and their impact on insurer stock prices: Analyzing climate, geopolitical, and cybersecurity risks. Research in International Business and Finance. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103201
  • Salisu, A.A., Pierdzioch, C., Gupta, R. (2021). Geopolitical risk and forecastability of tail risk in the oil market: Evidence from over a century of monthly data. Energy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121333
  • Rao, A., Sharma, G.D., Tiwari, A.K., (...), Dev, D. (2025) Crude oil Price forecasting: Leveraging machine learning for global economic stability. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124133

Submission Guidelines

We invite submissions of high-quality research papers aligned with the scope of this theme. All manuscripts will undergo double-blind peer review. There are no submission or publication fees.

Deadline for submissions: September 30, 2026

Expected publication: December 2026

Please follow the journal’s submission guidelines

Guests Editors:

dr hab. Katarzyna Byrka-Kita, prof. US
Email:

dr hab. Michał Kałdoński, prof. UEP
Email: