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ORCID

Katsiaryna Svirydzenka 0000-0002-9759-1147

Keywords

Growth; Mauritius; Growth accounting

Abstract

Mauritius’s economic performance since its independence has been called “the Mauritian miracle” and the “success of Africa” (Romer, 1992; Frankel, 2010; Stiglitz, 2011). However, the future growth potential is more uncertain. In this paper, we use growth accounting to analyze the sources of past growth and project potential ranges of future growth through 2033 under various policies. Growth averaged 4½ percent over the past 20 years. Our baseline suggests future growth rates around 3¼ percent, but growth could reach 4–5 percent with strong pro-active policies including (i) improving investment and savings rates; (ii) improving the efficiency of social spending and public enterprise reforms; (iii) investment in education and education reforms; (iii) labor market reforms; and (iv) further measures to reduce bottlenecks and increase productivity. With policies capable of generating 5 percent growth, Mauritius could reach high-income status in 2021, 4 years earlier than under the baseline.

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank the participants of a seminar organized by the AFR Growth Network, and one jointly organized by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development and the Bank of Mauritius, Vimal Thakoor, and Ali Mansoor for useful comments and suggestions. Graham Campbell provided invaluable research support. Adja Thiam provided excellent editorial assistance.

First Page

54

Last Page

83

Page Count

30

Received Date

16 August 2016

Revised Date

17 May 2017

Accept Date

19 May 2017

Online Available Date

24 August 2017

DOI

10.7172/2353-6845.jbfe.2017.2.3

JEL Code

F4; O1; O2; O4; O5

Publisher

University of Warsaw

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