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ORCID

Marcin Czaplicki: 0000-0002-3255-0985

Keywords

banks, lending capacity, capital requirements, lending

Abstract

The implementation of post-crisis (Basel III) capital requirements in 2015, followed by the introduction of the banking tax in 2016, marked a turning point for the loan-to-GDP ratio in Poland. Since Q4 2015, this ratio has declined by almost one-third, while the ratio of banks’ assets to GDP has remained relatively stable. However, the composition of bank assets has shifted – from corporate lending toward an increased share of sovereign bonds and retail loans, particularly mortgages.

This article explores the key drivers behind this structural shift. Using a combination of qualitative insights and quantitative analysis – including dynamic panel data modelling based on Polish bank-level data from 4q2015 to 2q2025 – we examine how banks have adjusted their lending policies in response to changes in their lending capacity, defined as the surplus of regulatory capital above capital requirements.

Our findings indicate that lending capacity has a positive effect on corporate lending and a negative effect on both sovereign and mortgage lending. We argue that banks make lending decisions based on capital constraints: the less constrained they are, the more likely they are to allocate capital to corporate loans, which are more capitalintensive. As lending capacity is influenced by both the stringency of regulatory requirements and banks’ ability to raise capital, we conclude that both factors have contributed to the decline in corporate lending since 2015, while simultaneously increasing the role of PLN-denominated mortgages and sovereign bonds in banks’ asset portfolios.

Acknowledgments

Funding

The research was funded by the subsidy of the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education (MNiSW) for the maintenance and development of the research potential of the Collegium of Management and Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (grant no. KZiF/S25:1.11).

Declaration of Conflicting Interests

The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and publication of the article.

Declaration about the scope of AI utilization

The author used artificial intelligence (AI) for language editing and proofreading of the manuscript.

First Page

115

Last Page

132

Page Count

18

Received Date

30.06.2026

Revised Date

21.07.2026

Accept Date

23.07.2026

Online Available Date

20.08.2026

DOI

10.7172/2353-6845.jbfe.2026.1.8

JEL Code

E51, G21, G28

Publisher

University of Warsaw

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